Even as the meat of the 2014 hurricane season begins, federal weather forecasters said Thursday there’s even a greater likelihood it will be below normal than they’d predicted before its June 1 start.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration called for a 70 percent chance of a below-average season, compared to the 50-50 chance it gave on May 22.
NOAA gave a 25 percent chance of a near normal season and only a 5 percent chance of an above normal one. The May 22 numbers were 40 and 10.
“Atmospheric and oceanic conditions that suppress cyclone formation have developed and will persist through the season, “Gerry Bell, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in the release.
As do all forecasters, the NOAA people stress that “below average” isn’t the same as “no storms.”
“Tropical storms and hurricanes can strike the U.S. during below-normal seasons, as we have already seen this year when Arthur made landfall in North Carolina as a category-2 hurricane,” Bell said in the release. “We urge everyone to remain prepared and be on alert throughout the season.”
